Bitcoin starts the second week of March at a bearish crossroads as new multimonth lows get closer.
Traders and analysts agree that little stands in the way of a $78,000 retest as BTC/USD seals its worst-ever weekly candle.
CPI and PPI are due as markets enter a broad risk-off phase and stocks’ futures tumble.
How low can Bitcoin (BTC) go? Old $69,000 all-time highs from 2021 are back on the menu.
Sentiment is on the floor, and not just in crypto, but not everyone believes that the situation is really all that bad.
Whales have been buying throughout the past week, indicating a solid risk-return basis at current price levels.
BTC price dives 14% in a week
Diving to $80,000 into the weekly close, Bitcoin’s latest weekly candle stands out for all the wrong reasons.
In US dollar terms, BTC/USD shed more value in seven days than at any time in history, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
So far, bulls have narrowly avoided a rematch with multimonth lows from late February, but among some Bitcoin traders, the mood is predictably cautious.
“Bitcoin is back in the critical zone of the weekly parabolic trend,” analyst Kevin Svenson wrote in his latest analysis on X.
“We are still holding the current lows of last week, no new low has been created yet. This is $BTC’s last chance to maintain an exponential higher low.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart with parabolic trendline. Source: Kevin Svenson/X
Trader SuperBro joined those preparing for a $78,000 rematch.
“Closed above the prior candle’s low and 50% level, but cracked the uptrend from Oct ’23,” a reaction to the weekly close stated.
“A candle like that rarely turns on a dime, so despite bullish divergences on the LTF I’m prepared for a sweep of the lows.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: SuperBro/X
Others sought more data to confirm a truly bearish breakdown.
“Are we in a bear market now? Simply no. There isn’t enough confluence to confirm that at all,” trader CrypNuevo argued in a dedicated X thread.
Even for him, however, new lows were on the cards, with the area around $77,000 particularly important.
“We can see some liquidations exactly at $77k in HTF, although they are not as reliable as LTF liquidations,” he continued.
BTC order book liquidity data. Source: CrypNuevo/X
CPI week overshadowed by market nerves
This week’s key US macroeconomic data releases are not in short supply, but markets are already flipping to an increasingly “risk-off” stance.
The February print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both due, along with the familiar job openings and jobless claims figures.
Both CPI and PPI overshot the mark last month amid an inflation rebound, which shook mark confidence.
Since then, neither crypto nor stocks have succeeded in recovering, and with the next Federal Reserve interest rates decision coming next week, there is little sign of optimism.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a cut on March 19 at just 3%. Meanwhile, the Fed’s May meeting is seeing rate-cut odds rapidly decrease.
Fed target rate probability comparison. Source: CME Group
“Amid all the trade war chaos, we have seen economic growth expectations crash sharply,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its latest X analysis.
“The Atlanta Fed reduced their Q1 2025 GDP growth estimate to as low as -2.8% last week. As a result, we saw interest rate cut expectations move up SHARPLY last week.”
Kobeissi noted that on short timeframes, stocks were gearing up for a “red” open.
“Crypto’s decline was a clear indication of growing risk-off sentiment this weekend,” it summarized.
Back to 2021 for BTC price?
Regarding BTC price bottom targets, the landscape is looking ever more nerve-racking for bulls.
With $80,000 hanging in the balance, one classic forecasting tool suggests that a reliable floor may only lie at an old Bitcoin all-time high — not from last year, but from 2021.
Created by network economist Timothy Peterson in 2019, Lowest Price Forward effectively delivers BTC price levels that will not be violated in the future.
In mid-2020, it correctly predicted that BTC/USD would never trade below $10,000 from September onward.
Now, the new line in the sand lies somewhere around $69,000.
“Lowest Price Forward doesn’t tell you where Bitcoin will be. It tells you where Bitcoin won’t be,” Peterson told X followers in a recent post this month.
“There is a 95% chance it won’t fall below $69k.”
Bitcoin Lowest Price Forward chart. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Peterson’s tool is not alone in eyeing new macro lows for BTC/USD to come.
As Cointelegraph reported, calls for a trip to the mid-$70,000 range are growing, with Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (SMA) a key target at $75,560.
The 200-day SMA, traditionally a bull market support line, failed as support around the latest weekly close for the first time since last October.
BTC/USD 1-week chart with 50-week, 200-day SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“An ugly start to the week,” Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, wrote in response, referring to open interest (OI).
“Looks like $BTC will retest $78k. If it fails, $75k is next in the crosshairs. There are a lot of options OI struck $70-$75k, if we get into that range it will be violent.”
The current multimonth low of just above $78,000 came at the end of February.
Crypto, macro sentiment match historical lows
It is no secret that Bitcoin and wider crypto market sentiment is struggling in the current environment, but the extent of the bearishness may come as a surprise.
The latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index puts the overall mood firmly back in the “extreme fear” zone, with the market enjoying a mere one-day break last week.
The Index has seldom been lower in recent years, with Bitcoin’s trip to $78,000 last month sparking a three-year record reading of just 10/100.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
It is not just crypto. As noted by finance and trading resource Barchart, stocks are also nervous, to an extent rarely seen this century.
“Sentiment is extremely bearish, which is actually bullish,” Peterson argued about the same data.
“Lowest reading since the bottom of GFC and COVID crash. Markets soared after that. Opportunities of the decade.”
Source: Barchart
Professional Capital Management founder and CEO Anthony Pompliano called on crypto investors not to pay attention to sentiment gauges at all.
“The Fear & Greed Index for crypto one year ago was at ‘Extreme Greed’ of 92. Today we are at ‘Extreme Fear’ of 17. Bitcoin is 20% higher over the same time frame,” an X post from March 10 reads.
“Don’t get tricked by online sentiment. It is all noise.”
Bitcoin whales wake up
Is there light at the end of the tunnel of what has become a hefty crypto bull market pullback?
Related: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8
Positive cues may be few and far between, but for research firm Santiment, one stands out: large investor accumulation.
Over the first full week of March, it shows, Bitcoin whales and “sharks” — entities with 10 BTC or more — felt it appropriate to start increasing their BTC exposure again.
“In short, their mild dumping from mid-February to early March contributed to crypto’s latest dump,” Santiment wrote in part of X commentary.
“But since March 3, wallets with 10+ $BTC have accumulated nearly 5,000 Bitcoin back into their collective wallets.”
Bitcoin whale, shark accumulation. Source: Santiment/X
Researchers acknowledged that price action has yet to reflect their conviction, but a delayed response could well mean that the market sees a fresh relief rally next.
“Prices have not reacted to their buying just yet, but don’t be surprised if the 2nd half of March turns out much better than the bloodbath we’ve seen since Bitcoin’s ATH 7 weeks ago… assuming these large key stakeholders continue their coin collecting,” they concluded.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
