Bitcoin (BTC) faces a “breakdown” and distribution despite a new macroeconomic paradigm being around the corner.
That was one of the conclusions of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, which, in its latest update, warned that Bitcoin was “not yet” ready to flip bullish.
Capriole: Bitcoin fundamentals say “not yet”
United States equities are booming, and the Federal Reserve may be at the end of its most stringent monetary tightening ever — but Bitcoin has failed to react.
As traders predict a return to levels closer to $25,000 or lower, Capriole believes that more time is necessary for the new macroeconomic reality to sink in.
“At the same time that Bitcoin has been faltering, the S&P500 has had its longest winning streak in years and the Fed has essentially paused rate hikes at what is now the tightest monetary policy regime on record,” founder Charles Edwards writes.
“In essence we are at a macro pivot point and (all else equal) entering a new monitory policy regime which should be more favorable for Bitcoin over the coming years. This is a positive backdrop for Bitcoin. But today the technicals and fundamentals are telling us ‘not yet.’”
While suggesting that the U.S. greenlighting a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund could turn the situation around, Bitcoin remains pinned below resistance on both long and short timeframes, Edwards concludes.
“The next support levels are $28K, $24K and low-$20Ks; with each offering significantly better relative opportunity,” he continued.
As such, utilizing the Wyckoff method, “distribution” currently characterizes BTC price action.
“Low Timeframe Technicals: Breakdown! Support at $30K failed and a new bearish trend has emerged,” Edwards summarizes.
“This is a low timeframe Wyckoff distribution. If the magnitude of the downswing matches the upswing, the target of this move is circa $25K.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price taps 6-week lows
As Cointelegraph reported, Capriole is far from the only market participant predicting BTC price conditions to get worse before they get better.
Related: Bitcoin loses $29K as traders flag key BTC price levels to watch next
On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators this week argued that multiple lower levels remain “possible” for Bitcoin after BTC/USD failed to rally on the back of last week’s U.S. macro data.
This showed inflation slowing faster than predictions, notionally increasing the odds of a pivot in Fed policy sooner rather than later.
In his recent interview with Cointelegraph, meanwhile, Edwards himself stuck by a previous long-term forecast. Bitcoin, he suggested, would need up to a year before bullish momentum really began.
“That thinking mostly remains today. Bitcoin has steadily grinded up about 30% since February,” he said.
“The difference today is that the relative value opportunity is slightly less as a result, and we are now trading into major price resistance at $32,000, which represents the bottom of the 2021 bull market range and confluence with major weekly and monthly order blocks.”
BTC price action wicked to $28,574 after the Aug. 1 Wall Street open, marking its lowest level since mid-June, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-risks-25k-macro-new-analysis
