Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to “rangebound movements” into May 24 as price action avoided expected volatility.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
No joy for BTC bulls after DXY downmove
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD returning to circle $29,000 after failing to hold $30,000 support.
On hourly timeframes, the pair thus continued a familiar pattern of swings between the two zones, refusing to explore more extreme territory either up or down.
“The crucial breaker for Bitcoin is again the $29.4K area. If that breaks -> next test at $30K,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized in his latest Twitter update.
“Overall, range-bound movements.”
The ongoing World Economic Forum Annual Meeting likewise gave no meaningful market-moving signals on its first days as Bitcoiners gathered in Oslo for what Human Rights Foundation chief strategy officer Alex Gladstein called the “diametrically opposed” Oslo Freedom Forum.
BTC/USD did manage to close the CME futures gap to the downside, which had opened at the end of the previous week.
“US Stocks showing signs of reversal this week. $BTC dropped with them, and now will pump back with them. Very obvious CME gap fill. Don’t be left behind,” popular Twitter account IncomeSharks continued.
CME Bitcoin futures 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView
Continuing the macro theme, markets commentator tedtalksmacro offered an explanation as to why crypto and risk assets more broadly were not making more of the new weakness in the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stood at 102 on the day, down 3 points from its twenty-year highs seen last week.
You’d think that the dollar index dumping would mean higher equities and #BTC but nope!
The DXY is moving lower due to hawkish comments from the ECB and not due to a natural increase in risk-appetite… hence zero impact on crypto and stonks.
(The euro makes up ~58% of the DXY) https://t.co/jSd6KlJk3L pic.twitter.com/GXICGmV1Pd
— tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) May 24, 2022
Two-year wait for $69,000?
Looking ahead, meanwhile, hopes of significant gains for Bitcoin were few and far between.
Related: Bitcoin’s current setup creates an interesting risk-reward situation for bulls
For Il Capo of Crypto, the Twitter commentator well known for their sober takes on the BTC price outlook, hodlers should only hope to beat current $69,000 all-time highs in 2024.
That year marks Bitcoin’s next block subsidy halving, when the reward given to miners decreases by 50% from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.
No. I expect a good recovery after this last leg down (100-500% bounces depending on the coin), but later this year we could see the continuation of the bear market. Not expecting new ATHs until mid-late 2024 (post next halving) https://t.co/U7lfFPmSqN
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) May 24, 2022
General consensus already favors a further “capitulation” style event to take BTC/USD below May’s $23,800 lows.
As Cointelegraph reported, current spot price action presents an increasing squeeze on miner profitability. Difficulty was set to decrease by an estimate 3.2% on May 25, its largest downmove since July 2021.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
