Bitcoin (BTC) returned to local highs at the Oct. 25 Wall Street open as nervous analysts kept an eye on miners.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
DXY provides instant relief for BTC
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD rising to offer a modest challenge to resistance, still unable to escape an established trading range.
United States equities likewise headed modestly higher, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index up 1% and 1.3%, respectively at the time of writing.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) conversely lost ground on the day, falling to its lowest levels since Oct. 6 and providing potential tailwinds for risk assets to seal opportunistic gains.
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView
For traders, the intraday status quo remained in place amid an ongoing lack of real volatility. Popular Twitter account Crypto Tony highlighted significant range levels, with $18,900 an important zone to hold.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ Twitter
Fellow trader Crypto Ed meanwhile revealed that he was “still waiting” for a correction to that level, followed by a bounce past $19,100.
“It might even go a bit lower, then coming back here, that would be your entry for a long,” he said in a YouTube update.
Previously, commentators had revealed a wait-and-see approach to the market, with estimates of a breakout ranging from two to eight weeks.
Miners under surveillance
Downside risk meanwhile firmly focused on miners on the day.
Related: Least volatile ‘Uptober’ ever — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
With hash rate at all-time highs but spot price at its lowest in nearly two years, miners continue to battle the tightest profit squeeze in history. They could soon be forced to offload hoarded coins to cover expenses, some warned.
In a dedicated research piece on the topic, Caue Oliveira, lead on-chain analyst at BlockTrends, in particular drew attention to hash price — miners’ revenue per exahash.
“At this moment hashprice, as the indicator is known, reached $66,500 which is the lowest value ever recorded,” he explained.
“Total revenue has strongly deviated from its average annual growth. What is common in all bears but with one difference: the costs of maintaining the operation.”
As of September, public miners’ BTC balance totaled a combined 34,509 BTC, a large tranche of liquidity which “can be unloaded as mining pressures continue,” market analyst Sam Rule commented.
“Bitcoin could conceivably capitulate to the $10k-$18k range, fueled by a final selloff from the miners. Something I definitely psychologically prepare for,” longtime analyst Tuur Demeester added.
Bitcoin miner net position change chart. Source: Glassnode
With miners exiting a major capitulation phase in August, however, data suggests that even prolonged distribution of coins does not necessarily impact price action negatively.
In early 2021, for example, after BTC/USD had cleared its 2017 all-time high, miners embarked on a mass profit-taking exercise, this failing to hold back Bitcoin as it hit an impulse top of $58,000 in April that year.
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the selling at that time saw roughly 30,000 BTC leave miner wallets in the month January.
Bitcoin balance in miner wallets chart. Source: Glassnode
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