Bitcoin (BTC) faces a choice between two key levels as part of a “macro trend defining range,” analysis says.
In a Twitter survey on March 27, monitoring resource Material Indicators said that BTC price action was now in a critical trading zone.
Market giving clues that “big move is coming”
Bitcoin has managed to hold out against a new wave of negative news involving largest global exchange Binance.
While commentators argue that the fallout from United States regulatory action against Binance US may be limited, concerns nonetheless remain that BTC/USD will fail to continue its upward momentum.
With a key monthly close coming, Material Indicators identified two important levels for bulls to protect and overcome, respectively.
These are the 200-week moving average (WMA) to the downside and $30,000 to the upside. While already known, a new survey now shows that market sentiment favors a support retest first.
#Bitcoin is literally at a MACRO Trend defining range.
Technical Support at the 200 Week Moving Average is currently ~$25,550, and resistance is at $30k
In your opinion, what happens first?
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) March 28, 2023
“When the market seems indecisive is often a clue that a big move is coming,” Material Indicators added in part of further commentary.
“Expecting the 200 Week Moving Average to be tested before we get to the Weekly close, possibly even before the Monthly close on Friday.”
An accompanying chart showed the BTC/USD order book on Binance with associated bid and ask liquidity clusters.
BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile continued to draw comparisons to Bitcoin‘s current behavior and its movements from the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020 when it briefly lost the 200 WMA as support.
Related: US enforcement agencies are turning up the heat on crypto-related crime
“In the end, BTC repeated its March 2020 downside wicking depth below the 200 MA. $BTC deviated by -28% to reach the ~$15500 price point. Since then $BTC has rallied +90% from the lows,” he summarized on the day.
“Now, BTC may be dipping in an effort to reclaim the 200-week MA as support.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter
Where’s the volatility?
Amid the Binance debacle, others meanwhile zoomed out to argue that both Bitcoin and crypto in general had performed extremely well given the range of destabilizing events appearing in recent weeks.
Related: Will BTC ditch the bear market? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
We’ve undergone the following in the past month:
• 2nd & 3rd largest bank failures in US history
• Credit Suisse essentially bailed out
• Federal Reserve +0.25% rate hike
• ECB +0.5% rate hike
• 2 major crypto banks shutdown
• Coinbase issued a Wells notice
• CZ & Binance… pic.twitter.com/TY7DN6QjcY
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) March 28, 2023
Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, further noted that macro market volatility remained comparatively low.
“What’s the straw going to be that breaks the camel’s back? Will it even break?” he queried.
“So far, nothing has produced material downward pressure for the overall market (equities or crypto)…”
VIX S&P 500 volatility index 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-will-hit-this-key-level-before-30k-survey-says
