Bitcoin (BTC) is due to finish 2023 as it started, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode says as October gains near 30%.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” released Oct. 24, researchers argued that the past week “sets the foundation” for a BTC price uptrend.
BTC price “convincingly” beats out resistance levels
As it hit $35,200 this week, Bitcoin eclipsed various key trendlines, which had previously acted as support for months.
These included various moving averages (MA), among them the 200-week simple MA at $28,400 — the classic “bear market” support line.
“A cluster of long-term simple moving averages of price are located around $28k, and have provided market resistance through September and October,” Glassnode noted.
“After a month of the market grinding higher, the bulls found sufficient strength this week to convincingly break through the 111-day, 200-day, and 200-week averages.”BTC/USD annotated chart with moving average data (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
In so doing, the profitability of various investor cohorts improved considerably. The so-called cost basis of speculators and market newcomers also lies near $28,000.
“The Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis is also now in the rear view mirror at $28k, putting the average recent investor into an average profit of +20%,” “The Week On-Chain” continued.
Researchers uploaded a chart of the short-term holder market value to realized value (STH-MVRV) ratio, which tracks profitability of STH coins. They noted that even prior to the October upside, no major capitulatory behavior was visible.
“We can see instances in 2021-22 where STH-MVRV reached relatively deep corrections of -20% or more,” they explained.
“Whilst the August sell-off did reach a low of -10%, it is noteworthy how shallow this MVRV decline is by comparison, suggesting the recent correction found noteworthy support, being a precursor to this weeks rally.”
Bitcoin STH-MVRV annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin “sets the foundation” for green year
As Cointelegraph reported, the presence of STH entities versus their seasoned counterparts, the long-term holders (LTHs) is now historically low.
Related: Bitcoin price model expects $45K ‘phase’ to hit in November
Despite facing profitability issues of their own, LTHs now own more than three-quarters of the available BTC supply for the first time.
Their cost basis is lower, further toward $20,000 — and while some believe that Bitcoin could still return to that area, Glassnode is optimistic over how the year will end.
“A meaningful proportion of supply and investors now find themselves above the average break-even price, located around $28k,” it concluded.
“This sets the foundation for a resumption of the 2023 uptrend. At the very least, the market has crossed over several key levels where aggregate investor psychology is likely to be anchored, making the weeks that follow important to keep an eye on.”
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Per data from on-chain monitoring resource CoinGlass, BTC/USD is currently up 26% this month — by October standards, still relatively modest.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-2023-uptober-btc-price-research
