Mt. Gox has transferred over 11,000 Bitcoin to two separate wallets, but Glassnode analysts told Decrypt it’s unlikely this shuffle is preparation to begin repaying more of the bankrupt exchange’s creditors.
According to analytics firm Arkham Intelligence, Mt. Gox deposited 893 BTC into one of its hot wallets and 10,608 BTC into a new change wallet in the past 24 hours.
This deposit follows two similar transfers on March 11, when the exchange’s administrators sent 332 BTC to the same hot wallet and 11,833 BTC to one of its cold wallets.
While the larger sum was merely moved from one Mt. Gox wallet to another, the smaller amount was then sent on to Bitstamp, according to tracker Spot On Chain.
This raises the possibility that the 893 BTC deposited today may end up at a trading platform, as was also the case with a March 6 deposit of 166.5 BTC, which ended up with BitGo.
Yet the two bigger transfers Mt. Gox made this month—of the 11,833 BTC on March 11 and also of 12,000 BTC on March 6—have simply moved from one of the exchange’s wallets to another.
This makes it uncertain as to whether today’s moves signal an imminent repayment of creditors, with experts remaining agnostic as to what exactly the transfers mean in the near term.
“The recent Mt. Gox-linked BTC movements appear to be part of the ongoing creditor repayment process, which has been unfolding over several months,” said Glassnode’s analysts team, speaking to Decrypt.
Glassnode adds that, while the latest transactions may indicate preparations for distribution, the firm has “seen no conclusive on-chain evidence that repayments are imminent.”
The firm’s analysis team also points out that Mt. Gox has pushed back the repayment deadline to October 31 of this year, with the Japan-based exchange’s trustees explaining at the time that “many rehabilitation creditors still have not received their repayments because they have not completed the necessary procedures for receiving repayments.”
Mt. Gox began the process of actually repaying creditors in July of last year, with Arkham data showing that the exchange’s Bitcoin balance has declined from around 140,000 BTC in July to 35,583 BTC today. At today’s prices, that Bitcoin stash is worth more than $3.1 billion.
However, this doesn’t mean that Mt. Gox has paid upwards of 100,000 BTC to creditors, with Glassnode explaining that most of this has likely remained in the wallets of custodians such as Bitstamp and Kraken.
“It’s important to highlight that on-chain transfers to these entities don’t necessarily confirm that creditors have been repaid, as the exchanges may still be in custody of the funds,” said Glassnode’s analyst team. “The repayment process is ongoing, and not all activity is directly traceable to final disbursements.”
The market appears to be aware of this fact, insofar as the price of Bitcoin has barely moved today, posting a 0.5% drop in the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price has dipped just below $88,000, according to CoinGecko data.
And sentiment could change for the worse as the October 31 repayment deadline approaches, it isn’t a foregone conclusion that all recipients of Mt. Gox’s BTC will sell up as soon as they possibly can.
One Reddit poll from July found that 55.7% of Mt. Gox creditors do not plan to sell any of their BTC “immediately” upon receiving it from the exchange’s trustees, although 18.8% plan to sell all of their BTC.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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Source: https://decrypt.co/311532/mt-gox-billion-bitcoin-repayments
