While Bitcoin (BTC) investors may not consider the U.S. midterm elections as a significant event, an eerie fractal from 2018 may provide a clue to what could happen before the year ends.
Bitcoin to hit $12K-$14K after midterms?
Comparing Bitcoin‘s price actions that led to the midterm elections of 2018 with the ones in 2022 shows a strikingly similar bear market trend.
For instance, BTC price trended lower in 2018 while holding a horizontal level near $6,000 as support, only to break below it after the midterm elections.
BTC/USD daily price chart featuring 2018 trend. Source: TradingView/Aditya Siddhartha Roy
In 2022, the cryptocurrency has halfway mirrored this trend. Its price now awaits a close below the current horizontal support level of around $19,000. With the midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the said breakdown scenario could occur sooner or later, as illustrated below.
BTC/USD daily price chart featuring 2022 trend. Source: TradingView/Aditya Siddhartha Roy
Independent market analyst Aditya Siddhartha Roy thinks Bitcoin’s price will fall into the $12,000-$14,000 range if a similar breakdown occurs. He further notes that the cryptocurrency could bottom out in November or December 2022, just like in 2018.
$BTC Bottom Analysis
Comparing to 2018 & 2022 Bear market
•Support Getting Weak – TrendLine Manipulation – Midterm Elections – Post Midterm Elections Dump – #BTC Bottom
•Nov-Dec could be bottom for #Bitcoin
•Retweet Appreciated #cryptocurrency #Crypto #ETH $ETH #Binance pic.twitter.com/GHDiHu4H3H
— Aditya Siddhartha Roy❁ (@Adityaroypspk) October 16, 2022
Stock market warnings for Bitcoin
The bearish prediction surfaces as Bitcoin’s correlation grows stronger with the U.S. equities in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies. Both markets have witnessed sharp drawdowns in the period of the U.S. central bank’s rate hikes in 2022.
Historically, in 17 of the 19 midterms since 1946, the stock market has performed better in the six months after an election than in the six months following it.
S&P 500 average performance in U.S. midterm election years. Source: Charles Schwab
That is primarily due to the market’s expectations of higher government spending from a new Congress, notes Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist, who further argues that 2022 could yield a different outcome.
“An additional infusion of funds seems unlikely this year, given the government’s historic levels of spending and stimulus in response to the pandemic,” she explains, adding:
“The combination of high inflation, the war in Ukraine, and a lingering pandemic has already made this cycle, unlike prior midterm years. With so many other forces at play in the market, I wouldn’t put much weight in historical midterm-year performance.”
U.S. money supply remains above $21 trillion. Source: FRED
As a result, Bitcoin remains at risk of tailing U.S. stocks lower, with the $12,000-$14,000 price target in view.
Optimistic BTC price indicators
However, a section of the crypto market sees Bitcoin decoupling from traditional markets, suggesting that the cryptocurrency may not tail S&P500 into a post-midterm election crash.
“At some point, the market will be controlled by those in the community that is long-term believers in BTC and very unlikely to sell and the growing global community which uses BTC for commerce,” Stephane Ouellette, chief executive of FRNT Financial Inc., told Bloomberg.
Related: Bitcoin clings to $19K as trader promises capitulation ‘will happen‘
The statement came after the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and S&P 500 dropped to 0.08 on Oct. 9, the lowest in four months.
BTC/USD and SPX daily correlation coefficient in recent days. Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, the number of unique addresses holding at least 1 BTC reached a new record high on Oct. 17, contrary to trends witnessed during the 2018 bear market. This suggests investors have been accumulating Bitcoin at local price dips.
Number of Bitcoin addresses holding at least 1 BTC. Source: Glassnode
“The on-chain data suggests those holders are optimistic the market will bounce back, keeping market fundamentals relatively healthy,” according to a note from crypto exchange Bitfinex.
Market analyst Wolf offered a similar outlook, citing Bitcoin’s extremely oversold relative strength index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators on weekly charts in 2022, which technically hints at a period of accumulation ahead.
Comparing current structure with 2018 before capitulation is, imo, complete non sense
Just by looking at the weekly RSI and MACD differences are notable.
In 2018 RSI was floating at a mid range of 45s, in 2022 RSI has hit its lowest level ever. $BTC pic.twitter.com/3Zyp9DDPA6
— Wolf (@IamCryptoWolf) October 17, 2022
In comparison, these oscillators were in the neutral zone prior to the 2018 midterm election, meaning BTC’s price had more room to decline.
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